Promises, Policies, and Accountability: Evidence from Brazilian Mayors

Résumé : Do elected politicians keep their campaign promises? We study the content of 46,000 candidate platforms in Brazilian municipal elections and compare their proposals to the policies implemented by 16,000 mayors after the election. We find evidence that campaign platforms reflect both candidate experience and voter preferences, and they predict future policy-making. However, we cannot conclude that the link is causal, suggesting that campaign promises represent a useful signal of a politicians’s policy intentions, but not a binding commitment. While voters seem to value some proposals more than others, we find limited evidence that they punish incumbents who deviate from their past campaign platform.